Pocatello, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

909
FXUS65 KPIH 010314
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
914 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through the weekend, primarily each afternoon and
  evening in the mountains. Stronger storms will be capable of
  producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Idaho Fire Weather Zones
  422/425/427 for scattered thunderstorms and for Idaho Fire
  Weather Zones 410/413 for gusty winds and low RHs this
  afternoon/evening.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  storms, supporting elevated fire weather conditions due to a
  combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Temperatures will remain above normal again today, with a
  gradual cooling trend starting Friday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A series of shortwaves will keep daily chances for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast. Greatest chances for
showers and thunder will generally be across the high terrain, with
HREF probability of thunder ranging 30 to 80 percent across the
central mountains and up to a 50 and 60 percent chance in the
Island Park region and South Hills region, respectively. The
Storm Prediction Center`s Convective Outlook has roughly the
western half of the CWA included in a Marginal Risk of severe
weather today due to the potential for thunderstorm outflows to
60 mph or greater as indicated by steep lapse rates and high
DCAPE values. Hi-res models show convection initiating in these
three regions by around 2 PM MDT, with strong to severe gusts
across the eastern Magic Valley expanding up the Snake River
Plain heading further into the afternoon. PWATs will trend
higher heading into Friday as moisture lifts northward, but
PWATs will still generally run below 0.75". While the
probability that storms will be capable of heavy downpours is
low, flash flooding will be possible in areas that more easily
experience runoff. The Weather Prediction Center`s Excessive
Rainfall Outlook includes the central mountains in a marginal
risk (at least 5% chance) and we have coordinated a Flash Flood
Watch with WFO Boise for the Wapiti burn scar from 3 PM this
afternoon through 10 PM MDT this evening due to the
aforementioned potential for flash flooding and debris flow from
moderate to heavy thunderstorm downpours. Outside of
thunderstorm gusts, winds will gust to 20 to 30 mph each
afternoon areawide. Temperatures will run several degrees above
normal again today before dropping to just below climatological
norms heading into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

The unsettled pattern will keep our daily highs running several
degrees below climatological norms this weekend through the first
half of next week. Daytime highs across the lower elevations will
span the 80s, with 60s and 70s in the mid to high elevations.
Outside of any thunderstorms, winds each afternoon are expected
to gust 20 to 30 mph throughout the period. Conditions will
trend drier during the middle of next week as high pressure
amplifies over the Southwest with the National Blend of Models
(NBM) PoP forecast keeping all chances of precipitation north of
our CWA beginning Tuesday. However, just less than half of the
500mb ensemble cluster solutions indicate another trough
shifting into the PacNW heading into later week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

TSRA cells moving SE to NW through the region are producing
outflow wind of 25G40KT and BLDU. TSRA should be done at the
airdromes by 01/03Z, and not expecting TS on station at either
KPIH or KIDA, although KPIH was affected by long-traveling
outflow wind. A mass of TSRA will be moving into the Wood River
region from the southern hills, which will keep a risk of TSRA,
although the uphill movement to approach KSUN from the Magic
Valley will take a lot of energy out of those cells that
survive. KDIJ is also at risk this evening. The non-Snake River
plain airports are at marginal risk of severe levels (G58KT,
large hail). Currently, KDIJ is the only airport with a high
enough risk for TSRA to make them mentionable, although the rest
are at approximately 10-15 percent chance of occurrence. Zero
impact from CIGs as all clouds staying at 6000ft AGL or higher,
and mostly FEW-SCT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 909 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Thunderstorm activity has relented. Will cancel the Red Flag
Warning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Wapiti burn scar from 3 PM
this afternoon through 10 PM MDT this evening due to the potential
for flash flooding and debris flows from moderate to heavy
thunderstorm downpours. The Weather Prediction Center`s Excessive
Rainfall Outlook includes the central mountains in a marginal risk
(at least 5% chance), meaning isolated flash flooding is possible
for areas that can experience rapid runoff, such as burn scars.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick
HYDROLOGY...Cropp